ITF Biarritz · QF · Clay · 13 Jun 2025
Silvia Ambrosio v Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah
48–68 in points · Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah won
Why it went the way it did
Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah won 9.9 more points than Silvia Ambrosio relative to what the serve alone predicted. Silvia Ambrosio's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.3, return execution −2.5, slice execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Silvia Ambrosio | Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.4 | −2.5 | −3.1 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +2.3 | +2.6 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +1.8 | +1.0 | +2.3 | +0.1 | +1.3 | −2.3 | −0.8 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +1.1 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −3.3 | −1.5 | −4.4 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −1.4 |
| Net | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.8 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.2 |
| All shots | −0.6 | −1.5 | −3.9 | −6.1 | +0.7 | +1.6 | +1.5 | +3.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Silvia Ambrosio | Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah | Net, Silvia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.6 | +1.9 | −1.3 | |
| 2 | −6.7 | +1.9 | −8.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Silvia Ambrosio serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 50% | 27% 80% | 24% 22% |
| 2 | 55% 27% | 25% 20% | 20% 25% |
Set to set +0.64 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.69 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 50% | 25% 40% | 25% 80% |
| 2 | 53% 80% | 21% 75% | 26% 40% |
Set to set +1.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Silvia Ambrosio
6.5 points left on the table across 211 shots 3.09 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH drop shot crosscourt ×1; BH drop shot down the line rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah
5.9 points left on the table across 205 shots 2.89 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts