Stuttgart · SF · Grass · 14 Jun 2025
Taylor Fritz v Felix Auger Aliassime
68–56 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Taylor Fritz won 7.7 more points than Felix Auger Aliassime relative to what the serve alone predicted. Felix Auger Aliassime's biggest leaks: return execution −6.0, backhand execution −2.7, slice shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Taylor Fritz | Felix Auger Aliassime | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +2.5 | +2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.4 | −1.7 | −2.3 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −6.0 | −6.6 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | −0.1 | +0.7 | −0.9 | −0.3 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +1.7 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −2.7 | −2.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.5 | −1.6 | −2.1 | −0.2 | −1.3 | +0.5 | −1.0 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.6 | −0.6 | −1.2 | −5.3 | −7.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Taylor Fritz | Felix Auger Aliassime | Net, Taylor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.4 | −3.7 | +3.3 | |
| 2 | +0.9 | −3.4 | +4.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Taylor Fritz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 79% | – | 42% 90% |
| 2 | 45% 80% | – | 55% 94% |
Within sets −0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Felix Auger Aliassime serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 71% | 4% 100% | 42% 64% |
| 2 | 49% 85% | 12% 40% | 39% 69% |
Set to set −0.31 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Taylor Fritz
3.3 points left on the table across 133 shots 2.47 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×8; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.87 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Felix Auger Aliassime
4.1 points left on the table across 135 shots 3.00 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts