RallyIQ

ITF Biarritz · SF · Clay · 14 Jun 2025

Julie Belgraver v Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah

80–107 in points · Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah won

Why it went the way it did

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah won 13.7 more points than Julie Belgraver relative to what the serve alone predicted. Julie Belgraver's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.6, backhand execution −4.2, slice shot selection −3.7.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotJulie BelgraverTiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st +0.1 ±0.0 −2.5 −2.3 −0.5 ±0.0 −0.2 −0.7
Serve 2nd −0.1 ±0.0 −1.3 −1.5 +0.1 ±0.0 +1.6 +1.6
Return +0.1 +0.4 −1.4 −0.9 −0.4 +0.5 −0.4 −0.4
Forehand +1.0 +2.6 −5.6 −1.9 +0.4 +1.8 +1.0 +3.2
Backhand ±0.0 +0.6 −4.2 −3.6 −0.1 +1.2 −2.8 −1.7
Slice −0.1 −3.7 −0.7 −4.6 −0.3 −2.1 +0.1 −2.3
Net −0.5 +1.2 −3.1 −2.4 −0.2 +0.7 −0.6 −0.1
Touch ±0.0 +0.1 +0.5 +0.6 −0.2 +0.9 −3.3 −2.6
All shots +0.5+1.2 −18.3−16.6 −1.2+3.0 −4.8−3.0

Set by set

SetJulie BelgraverTiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga RajaonahNet, Julie
1−6.1−8.6 +2.6
2−5.9+1.6 −7.4
3−4.7+4.1 −8.8

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Julie Belgraver serving

SetWideBodyT
1 43% 81% 24% 67% 33% 31%
2 48% 46% 15% 25% 37% 60%
3 58% 18% 11% 50% 32% 0%

Set to set +0.38 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −1.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah serving

SetWideBodyT
1 42% 57% 28% 57% 30% 53%
2 37% 86% 37% 71% 26% 100%
3 35% 75% 43% 50% 22% 60%

Set to set −0.24 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.72 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Julie Belgraver

8.2 points left on the table across 366 shots 2.23 per 100 shots

  1. Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.35 pts
  2. Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
  4. Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah

11.2 points left on the table across 355 shots 3.15 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-out rates higher · 1.51 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
  3. Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts