Bad Homburg · R32 · Grass · 23 Jun 2025
Donna Vekic v Diana Shnaider
63–47 in points · Donna Vekic won
Why it went the way it did
Donna Vekic won 7.1 more points than Diana Shnaider relative to what the serve alone predicted. Diana Shnaider's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.5, forehand direction choices −0.5, return execution −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Donna Vekic | Diana Shnaider | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +1.3 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.1 | +4.1 | +5.4 | −0.5 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.6 | +1.7 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −1.5 | −0.5 | −1.8 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +1.7 | +5.8 | +8.1 | −0.3 | −0.9 | +2.1 | +0.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Donna Vekic | Diana Shnaider | Net, Donna | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.4 | −2.1 | +3.5 | |
| 2 | +6.7 | +3.0 | +3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Donna Vekic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 79% | 4% 100% | 46% 69% |
| 2 | 53% 53% | 9% 67% | 38% 83% |
Within sets −2.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Diana Shnaider serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 83% | 18% 50% | 55% 58% |
| 2 | 43% 50% | 11% 67% | 46% 54% |
Within sets +0.84 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Donna Vekic
4.0 points left on the table across 164 shots 2.44 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Diana Shnaider
5.8 points left on the table across 165 shots 3.49 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts