Mallorca · F · Grass · 28 Jun 2025
Tallon Griekspoor v Corentin Moutet
80–74 in points · Tallon Griekspoor won
Why it went the way it did
Tallon Griekspoor won 1.7 more points than Corentin Moutet relative to what the serve alone predicted. Corentin Moutet's biggest leaks: return shot selection −1.9, slice shot selection −1.9, forehand execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tallon Griekspoor | Corentin Moutet | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +1.0 | −2.3 | −1.0 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −1.5 | +0.3 | −1.9 | +0.1 | −1.5 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +3.4 | −0.8 | +2.9 | +0.2 | +1.3 | −1.5 | ±0.0 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.4 | −3.0 | −0.1 | −1.9 | +1.0 | −1.0 |
| Net | +0.7 | +0.3 | −0.5 | +0.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.7 | +1.3 | +0.5 |
| All shots | +1.2 | +3.4 | −5.6 | −1.1 | −0.6 | −3.1 | +0.9 | −2.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Tallon Griekspoor | Corentin Moutet | Net, Tallon | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.1 | −3.1 | +1.0 | |
| 2 | +1.0 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tallon Griekspoor serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 69% | 12% 75% | 39% 85% |
| 2 | 65% 65% | 8% 75% | 27% 77% |
Set to set +0.81 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Corentin Moutet serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 82% | 33% 80% | 30% 56% |
| 2 | 26% 55% | 30% 77% | 44% 68% |
Set to set −1.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.71 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tallon Griekspoor
5.4 points left on the table across 193 shots 2.77 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Serve +1: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Corentin Moutet
5.9 points left on the table across 184 shots 3.23 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob down the line ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts