Wimbledon · R128 · Grass · 1 Jul 2025

Jesper De Jong v Christopher Eubanks

195–178 in points · Jesper De Jong won

Why it went the way it did

Jesper De Jong won 8.7 more points than Christopher Eubanks relative to what the serve alone predicted. Christopher Eubanks's biggest leaks: return execution −8.4, backhand execution −5.4, forehand execution −4.9.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

Shot	Jesper De Jong				Christopher Eubanks
Shot	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total
Serve 1st	+0.6	+1.2	−1.0	+0.8	+0.1	−0.2	−0.8	−0.9
Serve 2nd	−0.3	±0.0	−4.4	−4.7	−0.1	−0.1	+0.4	+0.2
Return	+0.6	−2.9	+0.8	−1.5	−0.1	−1.6	−8.4	−10.1
Forehand	+0.3	+2.7	−1.4	+1.5	+0.3	+7.3	−4.9	+2.7
Backhand	−0.7	+0.8	−2.2	−2.1	−0.1	+0.1	−5.4	−5.4
Slice	−0.2	−2.5	+0.7	−2.0	−0.5	−1.4	−2.1	−4.0
Net	−0.6	−0.4	−1.0	−2.0	−0.2	+0.6	−0.1	+0.3
Touch	−0.1	−0.8	+2.8	+1.8	±0.0	−0.1	−0.3	−0.4
Other	±0.0	−0.2	+0.5	+0.3	±0.0	±0.0	+1.0	+1.0
All shots	−0.4	−2.1	−5.2	−7.8	−0.6	+4.7	−20.6	−16.4

Set by set

Set	Jesper De Jong	Christopher Eubanks	Net, Jesper
1	−1.8	−5.1	+3.3
2	−2.3	−4.0	+1.7
3	−2.2	−1.8	−0.3
4	−1.9	−3.9	+2.0
5	+0.4	−1.6	+2.0

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Jesper De Jong serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	46% 83%	12% 33%	42% 82%
2	40% 59%	9% 50%	51% 86%
3	42% 74%	7% 0%	51% 70%
4	32% 44%	4% 100%	64% 78%
5	30% 55%	5% 100%	65% 75%

Set to set +1.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +1.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Christopher Eubanks serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	54% 73%	14% 75%	32% 44%
2	56% 61%	5% 50%	39% 81%
3	57% 65%	7% 67%	37% 71%
4	58% 78%	–	42% 38%
5	50% 67%	7% 100%	43% 54%

Set to set +0.17 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Jesper De Jong

12.5 points left on the table across 390 shots 3.20 per 100 shots

Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×7; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.76 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts

Christopher Eubanks

11.7 points left on the table across 403 shots 2.90 per 100 shots

Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.48 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts