Wimbledon · R16 · Grass · 6 Jul 2025
Taylor Fritz v Jordan Thompson
40–12 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Taylor Fritz won 14.7 more points than Jordan Thompson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jordan Thompson's biggest leaks: net execution −2.2, slice execution −2.0, return execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Taylor Fritz | Jordan Thompson | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −1.5 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.8 | −1.5 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | −0.1 | +1.7 | +1.9 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.1 | +1.6 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −2.0 | −3.3 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −2.4 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −0.2 | +6.1 | +6.2 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −7.9 | −8.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Taylor Fritz | Jordan Thompson | Net, Taylor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.5 | −6.5 | +8.0 | |
| 2 | +4.6 | −2.0 | +6.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Taylor Fritz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 89% | – | 47% 100% |
| 2 | 43% 100% | – | 57% 100% |
Jordan Thompson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 50% | 6% 100% | 47% 38% |
| 2 | 73% 25% | – | 27% 33% |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Taylor Fritz
2.3 points left on the table across 74 shots 3.15 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Jordan Thompson
2.5 points left on the table across 70 shots 3.63 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts