Gstaad · R16 · Clay · 17 Jul 2025
Alexander Bublik v Alexander Shevchenko
58–43 in points · Alexander Bublik won
Why it went the way it did
Alexander Bublik won 7.1 more points than Alexander Shevchenko relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Shevchenko's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.7, forehand execution −2.5, slice execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alexander Bublik | Alexander Shevchenko | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +2.4 | +2.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.3 | +1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | −1.0 | +2.9 | +2.0 | −0.1 | −1.0 | +1.6 | +0.5 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +1.7 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −2.5 | −2.6 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.2 | −0.5 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | −2.7 | −2.1 | −4.8 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −2.1 | +4.8 | +3.6 | −0.1 | −3.9 | +0.5 | −3.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Alexander Bublik | Alexander Shevchenko | Net, Alexander | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.1 | −0.7 | +4.9 | |
| 2 | −0.5 | −2.8 | +2.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alexander Bublik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 75% | – | 43% 78% |
| 2 | 65% 60% | – | 35% 64% |
Within sets +0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexander Shevchenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 50% | 4% 100% | 46% 55% |
| 2 | 36% 22% | 4% 0% | 60% 73% |
Within sets −0.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alexander Bublik
2.4 points left on the table across 133 shots 1.84 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
Alexander Shevchenko
3.3 points left on the table across 126 shots 2.60 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: smash to your middle hit BH down the line ×1; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.15 pts