Montreal · R64 · Hard · 30 Jul 2025
Amanda Anisimova v Lulu Sun
77–68 in points · Amanda Anisimova won
Why it went the way it did
Amanda Anisimova won 4.7 more points than Lulu Sun relative to what the serve alone predicted. Lulu Sun's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.5, return execution −1.5, slice shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Amanda Anisimova | Lulu Sun | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +3.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 |
| Return | +0.4 | +0.2 | −2.1 | −1.4 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −1.2 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.6 | −1.4 | −0.5 | −0.4 | +0.7 | −2.5 | −2.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −2.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +1.1 | +0.6 | −1.5 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −3.3 | −4.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Amanda Anisimova | Lulu Sun | Net, Amanda | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.9 | −3.9 | +3.0 | |
| 2 | +1.2 | −0.6 | +1.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Amanda Anisimova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 76% | 10% 67% | 35% 45% |
| 2 | 45% 67% | 8% 33% | 48% 68% |
Set to set −2.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Lulu Sun serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% 63% | 16% 60% | 58% 50% |
| 2 | 33% 71% | 16% 57% | 51% 55% |
Set to set +0.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Amanda Anisimova
4.0 points left on the table across 185 shots 2.18 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Lulu Sun
6.7 points left on the table across 160 shots 4.19 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts