Cincinnati Masters · R64 · Hard · 9 Aug 2025
Jannik Sinner v Daniel Elahi Galan
57–27 in points · Jannik Sinner won
Why it went the way it did
Jannik Sinner won 16.8 more points than Daniel Elahi Galan relative to what the serve alone predicted. Daniel Elahi Galan's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.9, forehand execution −1.9, backhand execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jannik Sinner | Daniel Elahi Galan | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +4.3 | +4.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.4 | +1.8 | +1.8 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +4.6 | +5.4 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −1.9 | −1.0 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.5 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.5 | −1.4 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.7 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −1.9 | −0.9 | −3.1 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.6 | +1.0 | +12.1 | +12.5 | −0.3 | −1.0 | −3.0 | −4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Jannik Sinner | Daniel Elahi Galan | Net, Jannik | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.3 | −0.8 | +7.1 | |
| 2 | +6.2 | −3.5 | +9.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jannik Sinner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 91% | 14% 67% | 36% 75% |
| 2 | 43% 100% | – | 57% 75% |
Within sets −0.83 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daniel Elahi Galan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 43% | 19% 0% | 38% 67% |
| 2 | 34% 36% | 3% 100% | 63% 45% |
Within sets +1.89 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jannik Sinner
3.1 points left on the table across 118 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Daniel Elahi Galan
2.9 points left on the table across 109 shots 2.68 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drop shot to your middle hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts