ITF Saskatoon · R32 · Hard · 12 Aug 2025
Gabriella Mikaul v Olivia Gadecki
18–50 in points · Olivia Gadecki won
Why it went the way it did
Olivia Gadecki won 14.6 more points than Gabriella Mikaul relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gabriella Mikaul's biggest leaks: return execution −2.7, forehand execution −1.7, slice shot selection −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gabriella Mikaul | Olivia Gadecki | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.1 | −2.7 | −3.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.7 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +2.8 | +3.9 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +1.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −0.5 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.6 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −0.8 | −0.3 | −6.6 | −7.7 | +0.7 | +1.3 | +4.8 | +6.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Gabriella Mikaul | Olivia Gadecki | Net, Gabriella | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.2 | +4.3 | −7.6 | |
| 2 | −4.5 | +2.5 | −7.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gabriella Mikaul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 29% | 21% 33% | 29% 0% |
| 2 | 47% 29% | 20% 33% | 33% 20% |
Within sets −2.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Olivia Gadecki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 75% | 8% 100% | 62% 75% |
| 2 | 53% 88% | 13% 0% | 33% 80% |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gabriella Mikaul
3.0 points left on the table across 73 shots 4.06 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
Olivia Gadecki
1.3 points left on the table across 75 shots 1.76 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts