Cincinnati Masters · QF · Hard · 14 Aug 2025
Jannik Sinner v Felix Auger Aliassime
57–27 in points · Jannik Sinner won
Why it went the way it did
Jannik Sinner won 15.9 more points than Felix Auger Aliassime relative to what the serve alone predicted. Felix Auger Aliassime's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.2, serve 2nd execution −3.5, return execution −3.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jannik Sinner | Felix Auger Aliassime | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −2.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.5 | −3.6 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −3.0 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +0.7 | −1.5 | −1.2 | −0.6 | +1.1 | −5.2 | −4.6 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.1 | +1.3 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −1.8 | −2.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.2 | +0.8 | −2.3 | −1.7 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −17.0 | −17.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Jannik Sinner | Felix Auger Aliassime | Net, Jannik | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.6 | −9.5 | +8.9 | |
| 2 | −1.1 | −8.1 | +7.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jannik Sinner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 100% | 7% 100% | 50% 71% |
| 2 | 72% 56% | 4% 0% | 24% 100% |
Within sets +1.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Felix Auger Aliassime serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 17% | 25% 20% | 45% 56% |
| 2 | 28% 57% | 24% 17% | 48% 33% |
Within sets −2.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jannik Sinner
2.5 points left on the table across 119 shots 2.07 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
Felix Auger Aliassime
3.0 points left on the table across 130 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts