Cincinnati · QF · Hard · 15 Aug 2025
Elena Rybakina v Aryna Sabalenka
62–45 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Elena Rybakina won 7.0 more points than Aryna Sabalenka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Aryna Sabalenka's biggest leaks: return execution −3.4, slice shot selection −1.6, backhand execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Elena Rybakina | Aryna Sabalenka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +3.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.2 | −2.9 | −2.8 | −0.4 | −0.6 | −3.4 | −4.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.5 | +1.2 | +2.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.2 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −2.4 | −2.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | +0.3 | −1.4 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.2 | −0.2 | −2.3 | −3.3 | −5.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Elena Rybakina | Aryna Sabalenka | Net, Elena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.4 | −2.7 | +6.1 | |
| 2 | −2.2 | −3.1 | +0.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Elena Rybakina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 73% | 13% 100% | 25% 67% |
| 2 | 63% 56% | 5% 100% | 33% 85% |
Within sets −0.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Aryna Sabalenka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 50% | 21% 50% | 37% 43% |
| 2 | 63% 53% | 13% 100% | 25% 100% |
Within sets −1.70 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Elena Rybakina
3.1 points left on the table across 116 shots 2.65 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Aryna Sabalenka
3.9 points left on the table across 127 shots 3.11 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts