US Open · R128 · Hard · 26 Aug 2025
Reilly Opelka v Carlos Alcaraz
82–107 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Alcaraz won 15.0 more points than Reilly Opelka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Reilly Opelka's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.1, backhand execution −3.1, serve 2nd execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Reilly Opelka | Carlos Alcaraz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | +6.7 | +6.9 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +8.1 | +8.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −2.1 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.3 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.4 | +1.3 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +3.5 | +3.3 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.9 | −5.1 | −3.2 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.4 | +2.5 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −3.1 | −3.2 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.7 | +2.8 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.5 | −1.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 | −2.7 | +0.6 | −2.2 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +1.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −1.6 |
| All shots | +0.4 | +1.0 | −3.4 | −2.0 | +0.7 | −0.6 | +12.9 | +13.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Reilly Opelka | Carlos Alcaraz | Net, Reilly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.6 | +7.4 | −9.9 | |
| 2 | +0.3 | +3.3 | −3.0 | |
| 3 | +0.3 | +2.4 | −2.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Reilly Opelka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 64% | 2% 100% | 40% 47% |
| 2 | 58% 61% | 6% 100% | 35% 64% |
| 3 | 63% 74% | – | 37% 55% |
Set to set −0.98 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 100% | 5% 100% | 40% 100% |
| 2 | 56% 68% | 6% 100% | 38% 77% |
| 3 | 63% 79% | – | 37% 64% |
Set to set −0.42 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Reilly Opelka
5.0 points left on the table across 190 shots 2.65 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×4; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Carlos Alcaraz
4.6 points left on the table across 183 shots 2.52 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts