US Open · R16 · Hard · 31 Aug 2025
Barbora Krejcikova v Taylor Townsend
111–121 in points · Barbora Krejcikova won
Why it went the way it did
Taylor Townsend won 6.0 more points than Barbora Krejcikova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Barbora Krejcikova's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.8, slice shot selection −4.0, slice execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Barbora Krejcikova | Taylor Townsend | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −0.6 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +2.1 | +2.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.1 | +1.6 | +1.4 | +0.5 | −3.4 | +2.1 | −0.8 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +2.0 | +2.3 | +3.5 | −0.2 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +1.9 | −4.8 | −3.4 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.3 | +0.9 |
| Slice | −0.6 | −4.0 | −1.8 | −6.5 | −0.7 | −2.9 | +1.2 | −2.5 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.8 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −1.5 |
| All shots | −1.8 | +0.2 | −4.0 | −5.5 | −0.7 | −5.0 | +6.2 | +0.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Barbora Krejcikova | Taylor Townsend | Net, Barbora | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.6 | +2.1 | −9.8 | |
| 2 | −0.5 | −1.7 | +1.2 | |
| 3 | +2.6 | ±0.0 | +2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Barbora Krejcikova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 43% | 13% 25% | 42% 38% |
| 2 | 55% 68% | 13% 57% | 32% 44% |
| 3 | 56% 45% | 11% 50% | 33% 83% |
Set to set −0.11 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Taylor Townsend serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 100% | 14% 100% | 50% 71% |
| 2 | 42% 70% | 12% 75% | 46% 40% |
| 3 | 53% 56% | 13% 50% | 33% 40% |
Set to set +2.64 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Barbora Krejcikova
12.3 points left on the table across 384 shots 3.21 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
Taylor Townsend
13.1 points left on the table across 368 shots 3.57 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.83 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts