US Open · QF · Hard · 3 Sep 2025
Felix Auger Aliassime v Alex De Minaur
158–153 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Felix Auger Aliassime won 5.1 more points than Alex De Minaur relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alex De Minaur's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −8.9, forehand execution −4.7, backhand execution −2.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Felix Auger Aliassime | Alex De Minaur | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.1 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +1.9 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −8.9 | −9.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −3.4 | −3.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −2.4 |
| Return | +0.3 | +1.7 | −8.3 | −6.4 | −0.6 | +1.5 | −1.4 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +6.5 | −10.2 | −4.4 | −1.3 | +5.2 | −4.7 | −0.8 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +1.0 | −0.4 | +0.7 | −0.2 | +0.5 | −2.7 | −2.4 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.6 | −0.6 | −3.0 | −0.2 | −1.7 | −0.7 | −2.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.7 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +1.3 | +1.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.3 | −1.4 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −1.1 | +6.3 | −18.5 | −13.3 | −2.3 | +3.6 | −19.6 | −18.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Felix Auger Aliassime | Alex De Minaur | Net, Felix | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.8 | −1.3 | −1.5 | |
| 2 | −3.3 | −7.8 | +4.4 | |
| 3 | −3.0 | −5.4 | +2.4 | |
| 4 | −4.2 | −3.9 | −0.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Felix Auger Aliassime serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 50% | 29% 63% | 43% 75% |
| 2 | 42% 55% | 23% 64% | 35% 71% |
| 3 | 34% 42% | 26% 78% | 40% 79% |
| 4 | 32% 50% | 19% 57% | 49% 78% |
Set to set +0.52 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alex De Minaur serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 73% | 11% 75% | 46% 63% |
| 2 | 49% 47% | 18% 73% | 33% 60% |
| 3 | 41% 64% | 6% 0% | 53% 61% |
| 4 | 44% 57% | 6% 50% | 50% 75% |
Set to set +0.31 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Felix Auger Aliassime
12.2 points left on the table across 541 shots 2.25 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
Alex De Minaur
13.0 points left on the table across 510 shots 2.54 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×20; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts