Beijing · R64 · Hard · 26 Sep 2025
Eva Lys v Iva Jovic
108–100 in points · Eva Lys won
Why it went the way it did
Eva Lys won 1.0 more points than Iva Jovic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Iva Jovic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.8, backhand execution −1.3, net execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Eva Lys | Iva Jovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −1.9 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | +2.0 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.9 | −0.8 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +1.4 | +2.7 | +4.1 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.6 | +5.8 | +7.3 | −0.2 | +1.9 | −0.3 | +1.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +3.6 | +4.6 | −0.3 | +1.2 | −1.3 | −0.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −1.5 | −0.1 | −1.8 | −0.7 | −2.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| All shots | −0.1 | +2.6 | +2.8 | +5.3 | −0.5 | +2.6 | +2.2 | +4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Eva Lys | Iva Jovic | Net, Eva | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.6 | +3.8 | +2.8 | |
| 2 | −2.1 | +1.2 | −3.3 | |
| 3 | +0.8 | −0.7 | +1.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Eva Lys serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 57% | 11% 100% | 58% 50% |
| 2 | 35% 29% | 15% 50% | 50% 45% |
| 3 | 28% 73% | 18% 43% | 54% 57% |
Set to set +1.94 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Iva Jovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 50% | 18% 50% | 45% 40% |
| 2 | 34% 60% | 28% 38% | 38% 36% |
| 3 | 36% 42% | 24% 75% | 39% 54% |
Set to set −2.83 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.90 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Eva Lys
9.5 points left on the table across 397 shots 2.39 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Iva Jovic
9.9 points left on the table across 410 shots 2.41 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×15; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.81 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts