Beijing · F · Hard · 1 Oct 2025
Learner Tien v Jannik Sinner
38–58 in points · Jannik Sinner won
Why it went the way it did
Jannik Sinner won 8.5 more points than Learner Tien relative to what the serve alone predicted. Learner Tien's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −2.4, serve 1st execution −2.2, return execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Learner Tien | Jannik Sinner | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −0.1 | −2.2 | −2.6 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.4 | −2.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +0.8 | +1.6 | +1.9 | −0.3 | +1.1 | +1.4 | +2.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +1.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.5 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −1.0 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.7 | −0.1 | −3.5 | −4.2 | −0.4 | +1.1 | +3.5 | +4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Learner Tien | Jannik Sinner | Net, Learner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.3 | +0.8 | −5.1 | |
| 2 | +0.1 | +3.5 | −3.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Learner Tien serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 56% | 23% 20% | 36% 63% |
| 2 | 48% 60% | 19% 25% | 33% 57% |
Within sets +2.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jannik Sinner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 64% | 12% 100% | 44% 73% |
| 2 | 50% 64% | 11% 33% | 39% 82% |
Within sets +0.68 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Learner Tien
5.6 points left on the table across 177 shots 3.16 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.29 pts
Jannik Sinner
3.7 points left on the table across 175 shots 2.11 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts