Wuhan · R16 · Hard · 9 Oct 2025
Jasmine Paolini v Clara Tauson
65–57 in points · Jasmine Paolini won
Why it went the way it did
Jasmine Paolini won 3.3 more points than Clara Tauson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Clara Tauson's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.3, slice shot selection −2.1, backhand execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jasmine Paolini | Clara Tauson | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.9 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −1.0 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +1.8 | +2.0 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.9 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.9 | −4.3 | −3.6 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.9 | −0.8 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −1.8 | −1.8 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.8 | +0.2 | −1.6 | +0.1 | −2.1 | +0.1 | −2.0 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +1.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.5 | −0.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| All shots | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.3 | −1.1 | +0.4 | −2.1 | −2.6 | −4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Jasmine Paolini | Clara Tauson | Net, Jasmine | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.0 | +2.7 | −5.8 | |
| 2 | +1.6 | −4.5 | +6.0 | |
| 3 | +0.4 | −2.6 | +3.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jasmine Paolini serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 46% | 19% 43% | 44% 63% |
| 2 | 25% 25% | 19% 100% | 56% 56% |
| 3 | 50% 83% | 8% 100% | 42% 60% |
Set to set +1.57 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.68 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Clara Tauson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 43% | – | 63% 100% |
| 2 | 35% 38% | 22% 20% | 43% 30% |
| 3 | 33% 50% | 8% 100% | 58% 43% |
Within sets −0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jasmine Paolini
5.3 points left on the table across 204 shots 2.58 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Clara Tauson
5.1 points left on the table across 217 shots 2.37 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts