Almaty · R32 · Hard · 14 Oct 2025
Brandon Nakashima v Hamad Medjedovic
70–60 in points · Brandon Nakashima won
Why it went the way it did
Brandon Nakashima won 6.8 more points than Hamad Medjedovic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Hamad Medjedovic's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.3, backhand execution −2.7, slice shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Brandon Nakashima | Hamad Medjedovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +6.9 | +6.8 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +3.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.4 | +3.5 | +3.5 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +3.0 | +3.3 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.4 | +2.6 | +3.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | −3.3 | −2.5 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.7 | −1.3 | −0.7 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −2.7 | −1.7 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −3.7 | −1.6 | −5.2 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | +1.1 | −0.2 |
| Net | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| All shots | −0.2 | −2.8 | +12.0 | +9.1 | +1.0 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +2.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Brandon Nakashima | Hamad Medjedovic | Net, Brandon | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.2 | +1.9 | +1.3 | |
| 2 | +5.9 | +0.4 | +5.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Brandon Nakashima serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 75% | 11% 75% | 33% 92% |
| 2 | 35% 50% | 9% 50% | 57% 92% |
Set to set +1.71 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Hamad Medjedovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 67% | 3% 0% | 50% 89% |
| 2 | 39% 62% | – | 61% 50% |
Set to set +1.15 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Brandon Nakashima
4.5 points left on the table across 162 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit BH smash through the middle ×1; BH smash down the line rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
Hamad Medjedovic
3.3 points left on the table across 156 shots 2.12 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts