Osaka · R16 · Hard · 15 Oct 2025
Sorana Cirstea v Katie Boulter
56–36 in points · Sorana Cirstea won
Why it went the way it did
Sorana Cirstea won 10.3 more points than Katie Boulter relative to what the serve alone predicted. Katie Boulter's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.7, return execution −3.9, slice execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sorana Cirstea | Katie Boulter | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.8 | −0.2 | +0.4 | −3.9 | −3.7 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.8 | +1.5 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.5 | −4.7 | −4.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | −1.0 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.7 | −2.7 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.6 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +0.3 | −1.6 | −1.0 | −0.9 | +1.3 | −11.7 | −11.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Sorana Cirstea | Katie Boulter | Net, Sorana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.8 | −4.9 | +4.1 | |
| 2 | −0.2 | −6.4 | +6.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sorana Cirstea serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 79% | 4% 100% | 38% 56% |
| 2 | 50% 60% | 10% 50% | 40% 50% |
Within sets −2.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Katie Boulter serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 43% | 38% 80% | 35% 33% |
| 2 | 36% 38% | 27% 33% | 36% 13% |
Within sets −0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sorana Cirstea
3.7 points left on the table across 141 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts
Katie Boulter
4.6 points left on the table across 146 shots 3.18 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts