Tokyo · R16 · Hard · 22 Oct 2025
Diana Shnaider v Anna Kalinskaya
114–108 in points · Anna Kalinskaya won
Why it went the way it did
Diana Shnaider won 3.3 more points than Anna Kalinskaya relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anna Kalinskaya's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.4, touch shot selection −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Diana Shnaider | Anna Kalinskaya | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.4 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +2.0 |
| Return | +0.4 | +0.1 | +4.3 | +4.8 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +1.2 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +2.4 | +4.5 | +6.6 | +1.0 | +1.7 | +4.9 | +7.5 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +1.0 | +3.9 | +5.0 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +4.5 | +5.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.3 | +1.3 | −2.1 | +0.2 | −3.4 | +0.7 | −2.6 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +1.8 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.9 | +1.9 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −2.2 | +1.8 | −0.7 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −1.0 | +17.6 | +16.6 | +1.8 | −3.0 | +14.6 | +13.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Diana Shnaider | Anna Kalinskaya | Net, Diana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.2 | +7.2 | −1.0 | |
| 2 | +8.2 | +3.3 | +4.9 | |
| 3 | +2.3 | +2.9 | −0.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Diana Shnaider serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% 60% | 40% 47% | 37% 56% |
| 2 | 50% 57% | 18% 100% | 32% 56% |
| 3 | 42% 56% | 13% 20% | 45% 82% |
Set to set +0.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anna Kalinskaya serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 48% | 20% 70% | 38% 58% |
| 2 | 46% 67% | – | 54% 29% |
| 3 | 43% 56% | 16% 100% | 41% 60% |
Set to set −0.42 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Diana Shnaider
14.4 points left on the table across 459 shots 3.14 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH crosscourt ×9; BH inside-out rates higher · 1.15 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×12; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.75 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
Anna Kalinskaya
10.0 points left on the table across 455 shots 2.20 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts