Hong Kong · R16 · Hard · 29 Oct 2025
Leylah Fernandez v Eva Lys
60–40 in points · Leylah Fernandez won
Why it went the way it did
Leylah Fernandez won 10.3 more points than Eva Lys relative to what the serve alone predicted. Eva Lys's biggest leaks: return execution −2.9, backhand execution −2.2, slice shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Leylah Fernandez | Eva Lys | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +3.9 | +4.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −2.9 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +0.9 | −0.4 | +1.0 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +1.2 | +1.9 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.7 | +1.3 | +1.9 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −2.2 | −1.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −0.9 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +1.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.3 | +1.1 | +5.6 | +7.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −3.6 | −3.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Leylah Fernandez | Eva Lys | Net, Leylah | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.6 | −1.8 | +3.4 | |
| 2 | +5.4 | −1.5 | +6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Leylah Fernandez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 67% | 22% 83% | 44% 58% |
| 2 | 48% 80% | 14% 33% | 38% 88% |
Within sets +0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Eva Lys serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 63% | 19% 60% | 50% 46% |
| 2 | 35% 56% | 19% 40% | 46% 42% |
Within sets +1.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Leylah Fernandez
4.9 points left on the table across 173 shots 2.85 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Eva Lys
4.6 points left on the table across 167 shots 2.77 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts