Paris Masters · F · Hard · 2 Nov 2025
Felix Auger Aliassime v Jannik Sinner
60–74 in points · Jannik Sinner won
Why it went the way it did
Jannik Sinner won 8.8 more points than Felix Auger Aliassime relative to what the serve alone predicted. Felix Auger Aliassime's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.5, forehand execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Felix Auger Aliassime | Jannik Sinner | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +4.0 | +4.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.3 | +2.9 | +3.3 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +3.7 | +4.0 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +1.5 | −1.2 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +1.3 | +7.0 | +8.2 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.7 | −0.2 | +0.9 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −3.5 | +0.5 | −2.7 | +0.2 | −2.3 | −0.4 | −2.5 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +1.5 | −1.1 | +5.5 | +5.9 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +15.0 | +14.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Felix Auger Aliassime | Jannik Sinner | Net, Felix | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.3 | +6.5 | −5.2 | |
| 2 | +4.6 | +8.2 | −3.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Felix Auger Aliassime serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 46% | 4% 100% | 50% 79% |
| 2 | 58% 73% | 7% 67% | 36% 69% |
Within sets −0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jannik Sinner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 86% | – | 70% 88% |
| 2 | 53% 85% | – | 47% 78% |
Within sets +0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Felix Auger Aliassime
4.0 points left on the table across 245 shots 1.64 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Jannik Sinner
6.2 points left on the table across 250 shots 2.49 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts