BJK Cup Playoffs · RR · Hard · 14 Nov 2025
Camila Osorio v Linda Noskova
32–57 in points · Linda Noskova won
Why it went the way it did
Linda Noskova won 13.3 more points than Camila Osorio relative to what the serve alone predicted. Camila Osorio's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.0, serve 2nd execution −1.9, backhand execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Camila Osorio | Linda Noskova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.5 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Return | −0.1 | −1.2 | +0.3 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +0.7 | +1.9 | +1.9 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +2.5 | +3.7 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.4 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.5 | +2.8 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.0 | −1.2 | −3.4 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +0.7 | +1.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.6 | −2.1 | −3.4 | −6.1 | +0.9 | +1.8 | +4.4 | +7.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Camila Osorio | Linda Noskova | Net, Camila | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.0 | +4.6 | −7.6 | |
| 2 | −3.1 | +2.6 | −5.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Camila Osorio serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 55% | 8% 0% | 48% 58% |
| 2 | 46% 18% | 13% 33% | 42% 60% |
Within sets +1.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Linda Noskova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 100% | 7% 0% | 40% 100% |
| 2 | 55% 67% | 9% 50% | 36% 63% |
Within sets +1.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Camila Osorio
4.4 points left on the table across 118 shots 3.76 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Linda Noskova
2.8 points left on the table across 132 shots 2.13 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts