BJK Cup Playoffs · RR · Hard · 16 Nov 2025
Linda Klimovicova v Elena Ruxandra Bertea
54–23 in points · Linda Klimovicova won
Why it went the way it did
Linda Klimovicova won 15.0 more points than Elena Ruxandra Bertea relative to what the serve alone predicted. Elena Ruxandra Bertea's biggest leaks: return execution −2.6, slice shot selection −1.2, return shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Linda Klimovicova | Elena Ruxandra Bertea | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | +2.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +1.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −2.6 | −3.5 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.5 | +2.1 | +2.9 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +1.2 | +1.6 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.6 | +2.7 | +3.6 | −0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −1.2 | +0.8 | −0.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +1.2 | +0.9 | +9.5 | +11.6 | −1.2 | −0.9 | −1.3 | −3.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Linda Klimovicova | Elena Ruxandra Bertea | Net, Linda | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.4 | +0.1 | +5.3 | |
| 2 | +6.2 | −3.5 | +9.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Linda Klimovicova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 64% | 8% 50% | 48% 75% |
| 2 | 47% 88% | – | 53% 100% |
Within sets +0.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elena Ruxandra Bertea serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 43% | 36% 50% | 32% 43% |
| 2 | 38% 20% | 31% 25% | 31% 50% |
Within sets +0.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Linda Klimovicova
2.1 points left on the table across 128 shots 1.65 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
Elena Ruxandra Bertea
4.3 points left on the table across 129 shots 3.37 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts