Davis Cup Finals · RR · Hard · 21 Nov 2025
Flavio Cobolli v Zizou Bergs
131–122 in points · Flavio Cobolli won
Why it went the way it did
Flavio Cobolli won 1.1 more points than Zizou Bergs relative to what the serve alone predicted. Zizou Bergs's biggest leaks: return execution −10.7, forehand execution −6.6, slice shot selection −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Flavio Cobolli | Zizou Bergs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −0.2 | −2.1 | −2.6 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.3 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.1 | +2.3 | +2.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.9 | −0.7 | −8.1 | −9.8 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −10.7 | −11.6 |
| Forehand | −0.9 | +2.9 | −6.7 | −4.7 | −0.5 | +2.0 | −6.6 | −5.1 |
| Backhand | −0.7 | −0.5 | −3.1 | −4.3 | −0.3 | +0.6 | −1.5 | −1.2 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.3 | −0.6 | −2.1 | −0.4 | −1.6 | −0.4 | −2.4 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +2.0 | +1.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.6 | −2.8 |
| All shots | −3.0 | +0.1 | −18.9 | −21.7 | −2.4 | ±0.0 | −20.5 | −22.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Flavio Cobolli | Zizou Bergs | Net, Flavio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.4 | −7.0 | +1.6 | |
| 2 | −5.6 | −5.9 | +0.3 | |
| 3 | −10.8 | −10.0 | −0.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Flavio Cobolli serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 75% | 12% 75% | 52% 65% |
| 2 | 31% 82% | 11% 75% | 57% 80% |
| 3 | 39% 67% | 14% 70% | 47% 61% |
Set to set −0.38 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Zizou Bergs serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 50% | 20% 50% | 50% 80% |
| 2 | 38% 79% | 11% 50% | 51% 84% |
| 3 | 47% 56% | 12% 71% | 41% 75% |
Set to set −0.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.92 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Flavio Cobolli
11.8 points left on the table across 389 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
Zizou Bergs
11.2 points left on the table across 390 shots 2.87 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×11; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts