Davis Cup Finals · RR · Hard · 23 Nov 2025
Matteo Berrettini v Pablo Carreno Busta
58–44 in points · Matteo Berrettini won
Why it went the way it did
Matteo Berrettini won 6.4 more points than Pablo Carreno Busta relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pablo Carreno Busta's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.5, return execution −2.9, slice execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Matteo Berrettini | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +2.0 | +2.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −2.9 | −3.6 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.9 | −2.1 | −1.3 | −0.5 | +0.9 | −3.5 | −3.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −3.8 | −1.0 | −4.6 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −1.1 | −1.8 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.4 | −3.6 | −0.7 | −3.9 | −0.5 | −0.8 | −9.0 | −10.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Matteo Berrettini | Pablo Carreno Busta | Net, Matteo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.2 | −5.3 | +3.1 | |
| 2 | −1.7 | −5.0 | +3.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Matteo Berrettini serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 60% | 4% 0% | 61% 88% |
| 2 | 48% 75% | – | 52% 85% |
Within sets −0.92 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pablo Carreno Busta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 60% | 18% 75% | 36% 63% |
| 2 | 52% 57% | 19% 60% | 30% 88% |
Within sets +2.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Matteo Berrettini
4.0 points left on the table across 165 shots 2.45 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Pablo Carreno Busta
3.4 points left on the table across 159 shots 2.14 per 100 shots
- Return +1: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.17 pts