ITF Sharm El Sheikh · F · Hard · 14 Dec 2025
Hibah Shaikh v Katy Dunne
66–46 in points · Hibah Shaikh won
Why it went the way it did
Hibah Shaikh won 10.3 more points than Katy Dunne relative to what the serve alone predicted. Katy Dunne's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.7, return execution −3.3, slice shot selection −3.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Hibah Shaikh | Katy Dunne | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.4 | +3.3 | +3.8 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −3.3 | −3.5 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.0 | −1.4 | −0.3 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +3.8 | +4.1 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | +0.2 | +2.3 | +3.1 | −0.4 | +1.0 | −3.7 | −3.0 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.4 | −0.5 | −2.0 | −0.2 | −3.0 | +1.4 | −1.8 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.6 | +2.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +0.4 | +5.3 | +6.2 | −1.0 | −1.3 | −1.9 | −4.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Hibah Shaikh | Katy Dunne | Net, Hibah | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.1 | −0.3 | +2.4 | |
| 2 | +4.1 | −3.8 | +7.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Hibah Shaikh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 73% | 36% 46% | 22% 50% |
| 2 | 44% 75% | 39% 57% | 17% 100% |
Set to set −0.67 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.82 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Katy Dunne serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 53% | 26% 36% | 29% 67% |
| 2 | 38% 17% | 25% 50% | 38% 17% |
Set to set −0.71 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Hibah Shaikh
3.9 points left on the table across 213 shots 1.82 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
Katy Dunne
6.1 points left on the table across 217 shots 2.80 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts