NextGen Finals · F · Hard · 21 Dec 2025
Alexander Blockx v Learner Tien
42–58 in points · Learner Tien won
Why it went the way it did
Learner Tien won 7.4 more points than Alexander Blockx relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Blockx's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.7, slice shot selection −2.5, backhand execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alexander Blockx | Learner Tien | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +1.8 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.8 | −3.7 | −2.6 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +3.0 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.4 | −1.8 | −1.6 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +1.0 | +0.6 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.5 | −0.4 | −2.7 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −2.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.6 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.3 | −1.8 | −4.3 | −6.4 | +0.3 | −0.5 | +1.3 | +1.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Alexander Blockx | Learner Tien | Net, Alexander | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.1 | +1.4 | −1.4 | |
| 2 | −4.5 | −0.2 | −4.3 | |
| 3 | −2.0 | −0.2 | −1.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alexander Blockx serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 70% | 10% 100% | 43% 67% |
| 2 | 56% 56% | 13% 100% | 31% 40% |
| 3 | 55% 67% | 9% 100% | 36% 50% |
Within sets +0.82 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Learner Tien serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 77% | 9% 50% | 32% 86% |
| 2 | 50% 86% | 7% 100% | 43% 83% |
| 3 | 63% 70% | – | 38% 83% |
Set to set +0.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alexander Blockx
4.3 points left on the table across 189 shots 2.29 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Learner Tien
4.4 points left on the table across 170 shots 2.61 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts