Brisbane · R32 · Hard · 6 Jan 2026
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v Tommy Paul
98–108 in points · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard won
Why it went the way it did
Tommy Paul won 7.1 more points than Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard relative to what the serve alone predicted. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.3, return execution −6.3, backhand execution −4.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Tommy Paul | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.4 | +4.2 | +4.5 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.4 | −6.3 | −6.0 | −0.2 | +0.8 | −3.5 | −2.9 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +2.8 | −7.3 | −4.7 | +0.3 | +2.6 | −1.1 | +1.9 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +1.4 | −4.1 | −2.7 | +0.4 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | +1.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 |
| Net | +0.4 | −0.3 | +2.8 | +2.8 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −1.3 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.1 | +3.2 | −10.8 | −7.7 | +0.3 | +4.0 | −4.8 | −0.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Tommy Paul | Net, Giovanni | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.1 | −1.7 | −3.3 | |
| 2 | −2.5 | −1.4 | −1.2 | |
| 3 | −0.1 | +2.5 | −2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 83% | 8% 75% | 44% 62% |
| 2 | 50% 80% | 5% 100% | 45% 56% |
| 3 | 52% 68% | 12% 60% | 36% 80% |
Set to set +0.47 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.57 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 88% | 10% 100% | 34% 90% |
| 2 | 45% 77% | 14% 25% | 41% 83% |
| 3 | 42% 75% | 11% 75% | 47% 83% |
Set to set −0.01 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
7.2 points left on the table across 249 shots 2.90 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Tommy Paul
6.0 points left on the table across 235 shots 2.55 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts