United Cup · RR · Hard · 7 Jan 2026
Hubert Hurkacz v Tallon Griekspoor
68–46 in points · Hubert Hurkacz won
Why it went the way it did
Hubert Hurkacz won 11.6 more points than Tallon Griekspoor relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tallon Griekspoor's biggest leaks: slice execution −1.8, return execution −1.8, slice shot selection −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Hubert Hurkacz | Tallon Griekspoor | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +5.6 | +5.6 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.1 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.1 | −2.2 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −1.8 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −0.5 | +0.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.3 | +1.3 | −0.3 | +0.8 | −1.3 | −0.8 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.5 | −1.8 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.8 | −3.2 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −0.6 | −0.2 | +1.4 | +0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +0.5 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −1.6 |
| All shots | +0.3 | −0.9 | +5.9 | +5.3 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −5.2 | −6.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Hubert Hurkacz | Tallon Griekspoor | Net, Hubert | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.5 | −3.9 | +6.3 | |
| 2 | +2.9 | −2.4 | +5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Hubert Hurkacz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 100% | 5% 100% | 50% 82% |
| 2 | 48% 81% | – | 52% 88% |
Within sets +0.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tallon Griekspoor serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 57% | – | 33% 71% |
| 2 | 39% 60% | 3% 0% | 58% 77% |
Within sets +0.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Hubert Hurkacz
4.3 points left on the table across 159 shots 2.73 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.17 pts
Tallon Griekspoor
5.2 points left on the table across 147 shots 3.53 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit BH smash through the middle ×1; BH smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts