United Cup · SF · Hard · 10 Jan 2026
Taylor Fritz v Hubert Hurkacz
69–80 in points · Hubert Hurkacz won
Why it went the way it did
Hubert Hurkacz won 4.4 more points than Taylor Fritz relative to what the serve alone predicted. Taylor Fritz's biggest leaks: return execution −4.3, forehand execution −0.9, slice shot selection −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Taylor Fritz | Hubert Hurkacz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.4 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +3.8 | +4.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.6 | −4.3 | −5.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −1.9 | −2.3 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.9 | −0.5 | −0.1 | +1.2 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −1.0 | +0.3 | −2.6 | +0.2 | −2.1 |
| Net | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +0.3 | −1.1 | −4.8 | −5.6 | +0.3 | −1.2 | −0.4 | −1.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Taylor Fritz | Hubert Hurkacz | Net, Taylor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.8 | −0.4 | −2.4 | |
| 2 | −2.8 | −0.8 | −2.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Taylor Fritz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 68% | 3% 0% | 43% 73% |
| 2 | 51% 58% | – | 49% 83% |
Set to set +1.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Hubert Hurkacz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 79% | – | 51% 70% |
| 2 | 41% 73% | 3% 0% | 57% 81% |
Set to set +1.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Taylor Fritz
3.8 points left on the table across 178 shots 2.11 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Hubert Hurkacz
4.3 points left on the table across 176 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts