Adelaide · R16 · Hard · 13 Jan 2026
Mirra Andreeva v Marie Bouzkova
58–34 in points · Mirra Andreeva won
Why it went the way it did
Mirra Andreeva won 11.7 more points than Marie Bouzkova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marie Bouzkova's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.6, slice execution −1.0, net execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mirra Andreeva | Marie Bouzkova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.2 | +4.8 | +5.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +1.6 | +2.3 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.2 | +5.9 | +7.5 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +0.9 | +2.3 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | +1.4 | +2.9 | +4.8 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.7 | +3.4 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.4 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.6 | −1.0 | −2.4 |
| Net | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +1.3 | +1.0 | +15.1 | +17.4 | +1.4 | +2.2 | +2.1 | +5.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Mirra Andreeva | Marie Bouzkova | Net, Mirra | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +8.0 | +3.1 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | +9.3 | +2.6 | +6.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mirra Andreeva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 56% | 16% 80% | 32% 70% |
| 2 | 59% 70% | 18% 100% | 24% 75% |
Set to set −0.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marie Bouzkova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 33% | 13% 33% | 38% 67% |
| 2 | 65% 31% | 10% 50% | 25% 60% |
Within sets −1.48 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mirra Andreeva
4.5 points left on the table across 194 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×1; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.20 pts
Marie Bouzkova
3.9 points left on the table across 190 shots 2.05 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts