Adelaide · R16 · Hard · 14 Jan 2026
Madison Keys v Tereza Valentova
66–53 in points · Madison Keys won
Why it went the way it did
Madison Keys won 4.1 more points than Tereza Valentova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tereza Valentova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.2, slice shot selection −2.0, touch execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Madison Keys | Tereza Valentova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +2.7 | +2.5 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.7 | +2.3 | +3.1 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −2.2 | −2.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.8 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −0.5 | −2.4 | +0.1 | −2.0 | +0.1 | −1.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.8 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.2 |
| All shots | +0.4 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −1.5 | −3.1 | −4.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Madison Keys | Tereza Valentova | Net, Madison | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.0 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | |
| 2 | +1.3 | −2.8 | +4.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Madison Keys serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 52% | 15% 57% | 42% 50% |
| 2 | 43% 75% | 11% 67% | 46% 54% |
Set to set +1.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tereza Valentova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 64% | 26% 29% | 22% 33% |
| 2 | 38% 50% | 31% 40% | 31% 40% |
Set to set −0.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Madison Keys
3.8 points left on the table across 139 shots 2.77 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Tereza Valentova
4.4 points left on the table across 146 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts