Adelaide · QF · Hard · 15 Jan 2026
Ugo Humbert v Alexander Shevchenko
58–27 in points · Ugo Humbert won
Why it went the way it did
Ugo Humbert won 15.0 more points than Alexander Shevchenko relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Shevchenko's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.3, serve 2nd execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ugo Humbert | Alexander Shevchenko | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +3.5 | +3.7 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.4 | +5.8 | +6.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +2.1 | +1.8 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.0 | +3.7 | +5.0 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +2.9 | +3.8 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | −0.3 | +4.6 | +4.7 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −2.3 | +0.9 | −1.5 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 | −0.3 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.4 | +0.1 | +18.8 | +19.3 | −0.1 | −1.3 | +5.7 | +4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Ugo Humbert | Alexander Shevchenko | Net, Ugo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +9.2 | −1.7 | +10.9 | |
| 2 | +10.1 | +5.9 | +4.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ugo Humbert serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% 100% | – | 38% 80% |
| 2 | 68% 71% | – | 32% 80% |
Within sets +1.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexander Shevchenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 38% | 6% 0% | 44% 0% |
| 2 | 60% 53% | – | 40% 70% |
Within sets +0.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ugo Humbert
4.6 points left on the table across 123 shots 3.72 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice crosscourt ×2; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts
Alexander Shevchenko
3.7 points left on the table across 119 shots 3.10 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts