Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 20 Jan 2026
Madison Keys v Oleksandra Oliynykova
80–61 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Madison Keys won 10.9 more points than Oleksandra Oliynykova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Oleksandra Oliynykova's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.9, touch shot selection −3.2, backhand execution −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Madison Keys | Oleksandra Oliynykova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.9 | −2.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +4.6 | +5.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +1.6 | +1.5 |
| Forehand | −1.1 | +2.3 | −0.2 | +1.1 | −0.4 | +0.8 | −1.7 | −1.3 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.9 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −2.4 | −2.0 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.6 | −1.7 | −4.4 | +0.2 | −4.9 | −1.8 | −6.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.0 | −0.8 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −1.2 | −0.3 | −3.2 | −2.0 | −5.5 |
| All shots | −1.5 | +1.2 | −2.3 | −2.7 | −1.9 | −6.8 | −4.8 | −13.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Madison Keys | Oleksandra Oliynykova | Net, Madison | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.4 | −8.5 | +4.0 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | −5.1 | +6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Madison Keys serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 58% | 16% 14% | 27% 75% |
| 2 | 38% 83% | 38% 83% | 25% 50% |
Set to set +3.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Oleksandra Oliynykova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19% 55% | 56% 52% | 25% 40% |
| 2 | 19% 100% | 71% 20% | 10% 50% |
Set to set +0.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Madison Keys
8.7 points left on the table across 279 shots 3.11 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
Oleksandra Oliynykova
8.0 points left on the table across 260 shots 3.09 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH lob down the line ×3; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts