Australian Open · R64 · Hard · 21 Jan 2026
Alycia Parks v Karolina Muchova
103–108 in points · Karolina Muchova won
Why it went the way it did
Karolina Muchova won 2.7 more points than Alycia Parks relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alycia Parks's biggest leaks: return execution −8.2, forehand execution −5.9, backhand execution −3.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alycia Parks | Karolina Muchova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +2.5 | +2.9 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −1.6 | −1.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.9 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.0 |
| Return | −0.4 | +0.7 | −8.2 | −7.8 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −3.6 | −3.4 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.8 | −5.9 | −3.9 | −0.5 | +1.5 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −3.5 | −3.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | −0.7 | −0.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.3 | −3.1 | +0.3 | −5.9 | +0.5 | −5.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.7 | +1.1 | +0.5 |
| All shots | +0.3 | +1.5 | −13.9 | −12.1 | −0.5 | −4.1 | −4.8 | −9.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Alycia Parks | Karolina Muchova | Net, Alycia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.6 | −2.4 | +5.0 | |
| 2 | −5.6 | −1.3 | −4.3 | |
| 3 | −9.1 | −5.7 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alycia Parks serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 62% | 7% 50% | 46% 77% |
| 2 | 47% 53% | 11% 50% | 42% 53% |
| 3 | 45% 47% | 13% 80% | 42% 63% |
Set to set −0.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karolina Muchova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% 33% | 26% 56% | 49% 59% |
| 2 | 25% 75% | 50% 69% | 25% 50% |
| 3 | 43% 65% | 10% 25% | 48% 79% |
Set to set −0.93 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alycia Parks
7.6 points left on the table across 267 shots 2.85 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
Karolina Muchova
7.6 points left on the table across 231 shots 3.27 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.68 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts