Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 23 Jan 2026
Magda Linette v Karolina Muchova
30–57 in points · Karolina Muchova won
Why it went the way it did
Karolina Muchova won 14.3 more points than Magda Linette relative to what the serve alone predicted. Magda Linette's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.0, slice shot selection −1.4, slice execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Magda Linette | Karolina Muchova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.8 | −3.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 | +1.0 | +2.9 | +3.8 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −1.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.4 | −1.3 | −2.6 | −0.1 | −1.6 | +0.6 | −1.2 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.7 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +2.3 | +2.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.3 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −8.1 | −9.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +5.4 | +5.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Magda Linette | Karolina Muchova | Net, Magda | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.3 | +2.1 | −6.4 | |
| 2 | −4.7 | +3.2 | −7.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Magda Linette serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 45% | 13% 0% | 39% 44% |
| 2 | 58% 47% | 15% 25% | 27% 57% |
Within sets +0.71 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karolina Muchova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 67% | 12% 50% | 35% 83% |
| 2 | 48% 80% | 24% 80% | 29% 83% |
Within sets −1.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Magda Linette
4.2 points left on the table across 159 shots 2.65 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
Karolina Muchova
4.4 points left on the table across 159 shots 2.79 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts