Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 23 Jan 2026
Mirra Andreeva v Elena Gabriela Ruse
71–55 in points · Mirra Andreeva won
Why it went the way it did
Mirra Andreeva won 7.4 more points than Elena Gabriela Ruse relative to what the serve alone predicted. Elena Gabriela Ruse's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.9, backhand execution −2.3, serve 1st execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mirra Andreeva | Elena Gabriela Ruse | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.7 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −1.8 | −0.9 | −0.2 | +2.0 | −3.9 | −2.1 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +1.1 | +5.4 | +6.8 | +0.7 | +1.5 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −7.4 | +4.5 | −2.6 | +0.2 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +1.0 | −1.0 | +0.4 |
| Touch | −0.4 | −0.6 | +0.5 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.4 | −6.6 | +9.2 | +3.0 | +1.1 | +3.4 | −8.9 | −4.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Mirra Andreeva | Elena Gabriela Ruse | Net, Mirra | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.2 | −2.8 | +4.0 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | −1.6 | +3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mirra Andreeva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 62% | 12% 75% | 48% 75% |
| 2 | 43% 46% | 13% 75% | 43% 62% |
Set to set −0.68 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elena Gabriela Ruse serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 50% | – | 46% 67% |
| 2 | 50% 50% | 6% 50% | 44% 44% |
Within sets −0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mirra Andreeva
7.4 points left on the table across 306 shots 2.41 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob down the line ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Elena Gabriela Ruse
6.7 points left on the table across 321 shots 2.09 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts