Davis Cup Qualifiers · RR · Hard · 7 Feb 2026
Dhakshineswar Suresh v Jesper De Jong
66–58 in points · Dhakshineswar Suresh won
Why it went the way it did
Dhakshineswar Suresh won 4.0 more points than Jesper De Jong relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jesper De Jong's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.7, serve 2nd execution −1.2, slice execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Dhakshineswar Suresh | Jesper De Jong | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +0.4 | −1.5 | −0.8 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.4 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.3 | −3.2 | −3.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −1.5 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.5 | −0.8 | +1.9 | +0.1 | +1.7 | −3.7 | −1.9 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.3 | −1.5 | −1.3 | −0.3 | +0.5 | +1.4 | +1.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +0.8 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −1.1 | −2.2 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +1.1 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +1.0 | +0.7 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +2.7 | −5.4 | −2.2 | −1.1 | +0.7 | −5.8 | −6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Dhakshineswar Suresh | Jesper De Jong | Net, Dhakshineswar | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.1 | −3.2 | +3.3 | |
| 2 | −2.3 | −3.0 | +0.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Dhakshineswar Suresh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 88% | – | 41% 55% |
| 2 | 47% 75% | 6% 50% | 47% 75% |
Within sets −0.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jesper De Jong serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 75% | 6% 50% | 56% 56% |
| 2 | 45% 77% | 10% 100% | 45% 62% |
Set to set −1.94 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Dhakshineswar Suresh
3.9 points left on the table across 165 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Jesper De Jong
5.2 points left on the table across 161 shots 3.25 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts