Rotterdam · R32 · Hard · 11 Feb 2026
Marton Fucsovics v Guy Den Ouden
73–81 in points · Guy Den Ouden won
Why it went the way it did
Marton Fucsovics won 1.1 more points than Guy Den Ouden relative to what the serve alone predicted. Guy Den Ouden's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.4, serve 1st execution −4.1, backhand execution −2.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marton Fucsovics | Guy Den Ouden | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −4.1 | −4.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 |
| Return | +0.5 | −0.3 | −3.5 | −3.2 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +1.2 | +1.8 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +3.5 | −3.6 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +1.8 | −4.4 | −2.6 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | +0.3 | +1.9 | +1.7 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −2.9 | −2.6 |
| Slice | +0.5 | −2.6 | −0.7 | −2.8 | −0.2 | −2.5 | +0.7 | −2.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Touch | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +0.9 | −10.3 | −8.8 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −9.4 | −9.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Marton Fucsovics | Guy Den Ouden | Net, Marton | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.6 | −5.9 | +4.3 | |
| 2 | −7.3 | −4.1 | −3.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marton Fucsovics serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 58% | 13% 60% | 40% 81% |
| 2 | 33% 43% | 14% 33% | 52% 55% |
Set to set +1.35 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Guy Den Ouden serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 71% | 15% 33% | 49% 59% |
| 2 | 36% 42% | 6% 0% | 58% 84% |
Set to set +1.63 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.90 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marton Fucsovics
6.0 points left on the table across 305 shots 1.96 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Guy Den Ouden
6.3 points left on the table across 283 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts