Rotterdam · SF · Hard · 14 Feb 2026
Felix Auger Aliassime v Alexander Bublik
56–28 in points · Felix Auger Aliassime won
Why it went the way it did
Felix Auger Aliassime won 14.3 more points than Alexander Bublik relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Bublik's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.7, return execution −2.4, touch execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Felix Auger Aliassime | Alexander Bublik | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.1 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −2.4 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.3 | +3.5 | +5.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −2.7 | −2.5 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −0.3 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.3 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.9 | −1.7 |
| All shots | −0.1 | +0.9 | +4.5 | +5.3 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −8.0 | −8.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Felix Auger Aliassime | Alexander Bublik | Net, Felix | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.3 | −3.4 | +4.8 | |
| 2 | +4.0 | −5.5 | +9.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Felix Auger Aliassime serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 43% | 14% 100% | 55% 83% |
| 2 | 41% 86% | 6% 100% | 53% 100% |
Within sets −1.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexander Bublik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 33% | 18% 33% | 47% 63% |
| 2 | 26% 43% | 30% 50% | 44% 50% |
Within sets −0.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Felix Auger Aliassime
3.1 points left on the table across 113 shots 2.74 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Alexander Bublik
2.3 points left on the table across 101 shots 2.26 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×4; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts