Doha · F · Hard · 21 Feb 2026
Arthur Fils v Carlos Alcaraz
24–52 in points · Carlos Alcaraz won
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Alcaraz won 15.5 more points than Arthur Fils relative to what the serve alone predicted. Arthur Fils's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.6, backhand execution −2.1, slice shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Arthur Fils | Carlos Alcaraz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.2 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +1.1 | +1.7 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.9 | −3.6 | −2.4 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +2.5 | +4.1 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | −0.5 | −2.1 | −2.1 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +1.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.4 | +0.5 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −0.5 | −1.8 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +2.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +1.1 | −0.7 | −6.9 | −6.4 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +6.9 | +9.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Arthur Fils | Carlos Alcaraz | Net, Arthur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.8 | +0.2 | −5.0 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | +8.9 | −10.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Arthur Fils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 50% | 4% 0% | 35% 75% |
| 2 | 50% 30% | 5% 0% | 45% 33% |
Within sets +0.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 88% | 10% 50% | 50% 80% |
| 2 | 46% 100% | 8% 100% | 46% 83% |
Within sets −0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Arthur Fils
1.9 points left on the table across 143 shots 1.34 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.09 pts
Carlos Alcaraz
2.6 points left on the table across 148 shots 1.77 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts