Austin · R32 · Hard · 24 Feb 2026
Dalma Galfi v Bianca Andreescu
98–92 in points · Dalma Galfi won
Why it went the way it did
Dalma Galfi won 0.2 more points than Bianca Andreescu relative to what the serve alone predicted. Bianca Andreescu's biggest leaks: return execution −4.2, slice shot selection −3.2, touch execution −3.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Dalma Galfi | Bianca Andreescu | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.5 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −1.9 |
| Return | −0.8 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −1.7 | −0.4 | −1.3 | −4.2 | −5.9 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.2 | +0.2 | +1.7 | −0.5 | +1.9 | +2.1 | +3.5 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +1.4 | −2.7 | −1.6 | −0.4 | +2.0 | −0.7 | +0.9 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −3.8 | −1.0 | −5.1 | −0.3 | −3.2 | +0.9 | −2.7 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +0.4 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +3.1 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −3.2 | −3.2 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −2.9 | −2.3 | −5.7 | −1.4 | +0.3 | −4.8 | −5.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Dalma Galfi | Bianca Andreescu | Net, Dalma | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.9 | −5.3 | +3.4 | |
| 2 | −5.3 | −0.8 | −4.4 | |
| 3 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +1.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Dalma Galfi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 38% | 10% 67% | 62% 72% |
| 2 | 29% 70% | 21% 57% | 50% 53% |
| 3 | 26% 55% | 24% 10% | 50% 71% |
Set to set −0.04 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.74 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Bianca Andreescu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 46% | 10% 100% | 25% 20% |
| 2 | 43% 67% | 23% 75% | 34% 75% |
| 3 | 40% 50% | 32% 38% | 28% 43% |
Set to set +0.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.65 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Dalma Galfi
9.5 points left on the table across 307 shots 3.10 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
Bianca Andreescu
10.6 points left on the table across 316 shots 3.35 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your backhand side hit BH drop shot through the middle ×1; BH drop shot down the line rates higher · 0.24 pts