Dubai · SF · Hard · 27 Feb 2026
Daniil Medvedev v Felix Auger Aliassime
64–43 in points · Daniil Medvedev won
Why it went the way it did
Daniil Medvedev won 13.6 more points than Felix Auger Aliassime relative to what the serve alone predicted. Felix Auger Aliassime's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.9, slice shot selection −2.5, forehand execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Daniil Medvedev | Felix Auger Aliassime | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +2.2 | +2.3 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +2.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.3 | +3.7 | +4.0 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +1.6 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +1.8 | +0.5 | +2.4 | −1.5 | +1.4 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.8 | +6.8 | +7.9 | +0.1 | +0.7 | −3.9 | −3.1 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.7 | −0.2 | −1.9 | +0.2 | −2.5 | +1.5 | −0.8 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.6 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.7 | −0.1 | +14.5 | +15.1 | +1.1 | +1.4 | −1.1 | +1.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Daniil Medvedev | Felix Auger Aliassime | Net, Daniil | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.6 | +1.4 | +5.2 | |
| 2 | +8.5 | ±0.0 | +8.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Daniil Medvedev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 64% | – | 56% 93% |
| 2 | 39% 86% | – | 61% 91% |
Within sets −2.92 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Felix Auger Aliassime serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 58% | – | 42% 64% |
| 2 | 55% 29% | – | 45% 79% |
Set to set +0.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Daniil Medvedev
4.5 points left on the table across 209 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Felix Auger Aliassime
4.8 points left on the table across 200 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.78 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts