ITF Trnava · R16 · Hard · 5 Mar 2026
Alina Korneeva v Mia Pohankova
112–99 in points · Alina Korneeva won
Why it went the way it did
Alina Korneeva won 8.2 more points than Mia Pohankova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mia Pohankova's biggest leaks: net execution −2.7, slice shot selection −2.0, slice execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alina Korneeva | Mia Pohankova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Return | +0.6 | +0.5 | +2.1 | +3.3 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.6 | +3.6 | +5.4 | +0.4 | +3.9 | +0.5 | +4.8 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +2.1 | +2.6 | +4.6 | +0.1 | +1.8 | +0.5 | +2.4 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −5.7 | +2.1 | −4.0 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −1.3 | −3.4 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +1.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −2.7 | −2.4 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.2 | −1.9 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.7 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −1.6 | +10.0 | +8.9 | +0.2 | +3.2 | −2.8 | +0.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Alina Korneeva | Mia Pohankova | Net, Alina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.8 | +0.3 | +4.5 | |
| 2 | −3.1 | ±0.0 | −3.1 | |
| 3 | +7.2 | +0.3 | +6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alina Korneeva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 60% | 21% 57% | 33% 64% |
| 2 | 24% 33% | 29% 45% | 47% 56% |
| 3 | 26% 80% | 16% 67% | 58% 91% |
Set to set −0.10 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mia Pohankova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 52% | 19% 50% | 38% 50% |
| 2 | 36% 54% | 19% 57% | 44% 56% |
| 3 | 65% 50% | 3% 0% | 32% 60% |
Set to set +0.26 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alina Korneeva
11.0 points left on the table across 417 shots 2.63 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
Mia Pohankova
10.0 points left on the table across 395 shots 2.54 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.69 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts