Indian Wells Masters · QF · Hard · 12 Mar 2026
Jannik Sinner v Learner Tien
60–37 in points · Jannik Sinner won
Why it went the way it did
Jannik Sinner won 11.6 more points than Learner Tien relative to what the serve alone predicted. Learner Tien's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.4, slice shot selection −1.3, net execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jannik Sinner | Learner Tien | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +3.3 | +3.5 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +3.3 | +3.6 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +2.4 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.6 | +1.4 | +2.3 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −3.4 | −2.4 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | +2.2 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.0 | +0.9 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −1.3 | +0.9 | −0.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +1.0 | −0.5 | +10.6 | +11.1 | +0.6 | −0.8 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Jannik Sinner | Learner Tien | Net, Jannik | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +7.1 | +0.8 | +6.3 | |
| 2 | +4.0 | −1.3 | +5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jannik Sinner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 77% | – | 43% 70% |
| 2 | 68% 65% | – | 32% 88% |
Within sets +1.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Learner Tien serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% 44% | – | 36% 56% |
| 2 | 67% 44% | – | 33% 63% |
Within sets −0.93 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jannik Sinner
3.1 points left on the table across 169 shots 1.85 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Learner Tien
4.2 points left on the table across 173 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.19 pts