Indian Wells · QF · Hard · 12 Mar 2026
Elena Rybakina v Jessica Pegula
72–63 in points · Elena Rybakina won
Why it went the way it did
Elena Rybakina won 2.9 more points than Jessica Pegula relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jessica Pegula's biggest leaks: return execution −3.9, slice shot selection −2.4, return shot selection −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Elena Rybakina | Jessica Pegula | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +2.1 | +2.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.8 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.3 | −1.6 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −1.7 | −3.9 | −6.0 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.5 | −2.2 | −0.9 | −0.1 | +0.9 | −0.8 | ±0.0 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +1.7 | +1.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.2 | −2.4 | ±0.0 | −2.4 | −1.1 | −3.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +0.5 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +0.9 | −4.1 | −3.0 | −0.6 | −4.2 | −1.2 | −5.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Elena Rybakina | Jessica Pegula | Net, Elena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.1 | −2.2 | +3.4 | |
| 2 | −4.1 | −3.7 | −0.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Elena Rybakina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 69% | 10% 33% | 39% 67% |
| 2 | 60% 68% | 9% 50% | 32% 67% |
Set to set +0.25 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jessica Pegula serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 80% | 25% 50% | 44% 29% |
| 2 | 29% 75% | 22% 56% | 49% 70% |
Within sets +0.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Elena Rybakina
4.8 points left on the table across 180 shots 2.68 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
Jessica Pegula
5.6 points left on the table across 184 shots 3.05 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×2; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts