Monte Carlo Masters · R32 · Clay · 8 Apr 2026
Matteo Berrettini v Daniil Medvedev
50–17 in points · Matteo Berrettini won
Why it went the way it did
Matteo Berrettini won 16.4 more points than Daniil Medvedev relative to what the serve alone predicted. Daniil Medvedev's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.6, backhand execution −2.9, serve 2nd execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Matteo Berrettini | Daniil Medvedev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +2.7 | +2.7 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.6 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.9 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +1.8 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −0.7 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.9 | −3.6 | −2.5 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.3 | +0.3 | −1.3 | −2.9 | −3.9 |
| Slice | +0.5 | −4.8 | +1.9 | −2.4 | +0.1 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.8 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −3.2 | +8.0 | +4.9 | +0.7 | −1.3 | −10.9 | −11.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Matteo Berrettini | Daniil Medvedev | Net, Matteo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.0 | −4.5 | +7.5 | |
| 2 | +1.9 | −7.0 | +8.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Matteo Berrettini serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 80% | – | 50% 60% |
| 2 | 57% 88% | – | 43% 83% |
Within sets +0.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daniil Medvedev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25% 0% | 6% 100% | 69% 27% |
| 2 | 24% 25% | – | 76% 31% |
Within sets +1.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Matteo Berrettini
4.3 points left on the table across 130 shots 3.32 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Daniil Medvedev
2.7 points left on the table across 132 shots 2.02 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts